What: Charlotte Hornets (9-31) (4-17 away) at Minnesota Timberwolves (30-12) (17-3 home)
When: 8:00pm Eastern
Where: Target Center; Minneapolis, MN
How to watch: Bally Sports Southeast, NBA League Pass
Outfitting: Hornets–City (teal/mint), Timberwolves–Statement (black)
Game Lines: Hornets +15.5 (that’s a lot of points), O/U 223.5
Injuries:
Hornets: LaMelo Ball-questionable (ankle), Nick Richards-questionable (ankle), Bryce McGowens-questionable (hip flexor), Gordon Hayward-out (calf), Mark Williams-out (back)
Timberwolves: None (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
The Charlotte Hornets, to their credit, have looked like a passable, somewhat competitive professional basketball team in their last two outings. They beat the Spurs on Friday and then put up an admirable fight against the 76ers on Saturday. They need to carry that momentum with them on this brief two game midwestern road trip. It starts against the Timberwolves tonight, who currently hold the best record in the Western Conference and second best record in the whole league.
It’s a surprising come-up for the Wolves. They pushed all their chips into the middle of the table by acquiring Rudy Gobert last offseason, then further made a push for meaning business by unloading D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley. All those moves resulted in a 42-40 finish and first round playoff exit last season, basically the same as the season prior.
Still, the Timberwolves held strong and entered this season with almost the same setup. It’s been a resounding success. Anthony Edwards has fully ascended to superstar status while the team has a whole boasts the league’s best defense by a significant margin. The gap between their defensive rating and the second best is greater than the difference between the second and sixth best defenses in the league.
Rudy Gobert is the obvious anchor of that. He is arguably the most imposing defensive presence in the league, and that is borne out in the numbers. The Timberwolves defense is eight points per 100 possessions better when Gobert is on the floor than when he’s on the bench. Teams score just 106.3 points per 100 possessions against the Wolves when Gobert is on the floor, which is over a full point worse than the league’s worst offense.
He’s complemented by Jaden McDaniels, brother of former Hornet Jalen, who has risen to one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. Mike Conley provides that veteran savvy and defensive effort at the point of attack, while Anthony Edwards can bring it defensively when he’s locked in. There are so many strong defenders all over the place that you almost forget that Karl-Anthony Towns is out there pretending to play defense too.
The current MO for the Wolves is to do most of their scoring when Anthony Edwards is on the floor. When he’s off, the offense struggles badly. They make up for that by making sure their opponent’s offense struggles badly as well. Minutes without Edwards on the floor are played with like a mid-2000s era level of offensive efficiency for both teams.
The best path to success for the Hornets would be to win the bench battle since the Timberwolves’ starting unit is so dominant, but the Hornets bench probably isn’t capable of that. The Hornets get the fewest points per game out of their bench in the league. That’s only going to be worse if LaMelo and Richards can’t play and we’re subjected to more minutes with Ish Smith, JT Thor, and Nathan Mensah all on the floor together.
