MEASUREMENTS

Height: 6’8.75″ (without shoes)
Wingspan: 6’10″
Standing reach: 8’9.5″
Weight: 197 pounds
Standing vertical: 31″
Max vertical: 38″

BACKGROUND

Matas Buzelis came into the 2024 cycle with a chance to be the top pick in the draft. A slow start with the G League Ignite program and subpar shooting percentages slid him down the board a bit, but the Chicago-born Lithuanian played well enough to keep himself inside the top-10.

Beginning his high school career in Chicago, Buzelis would transfer to Brewster Academy in New Hampshire (New England hoops over all) so that he could play during the pandemic. He transferred to Sunrise Christian Academy for his senior year, during which he chose to play for Ignite over colleges like Kentucky, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Florida State. Both of Buzelis’ parents were professional basketball players in Lithuania before emigrating to the United States–as a child, Buzelis was also an accomplished swimmer and gymnast.

STRENGTHS

Positional floor-spacing, off-ball defensive playmaking, mid/low-post scoring

My opinion on Buzelis evolved a lot as year went on, considerably more than any prospect–originally viewed as a scoring/playmaking wing when he was in high school and early on with Ignite. Seeing flashes of spot-up shooting (especially from the corners), attacking closeouts and using long strides and length to finish at the rim, stationary playmaking, post scoring, weakside rim protection made me view him as more of a 4-man, which gives him a much higher floor in my opinion. All he has to do to remain effective in that role is shoot in the mid-thirties from three, make help-side plays on defense, and drive off closeouts to force defensive rotations.

Mechanics look pristine despite low percentages, both with Ignite and at the EYBL level. Shot 31.3% on all jumpers with Ignite per Synergy, including 26.3% from deep and just 22.5% on unguarded threes–very confident that levels out with better talent surrounding him. Watching him find open space off the ball, prep for his shot and get it off with a clean, quick release, it’s hard not to think he just had a rough year shooting-wise. Makes some sense that it took a while to iron out the shot as he adjusted to the speed of the pros.

A 6-foot-10 floor-spacing forward that can run off screens, relocate to find open pockets in the defense, has the instinct to counter coverages and duck inside, slip screens, back cut, etc is pretty hard to find. The importance of a quality 4-man in a team’s lineup has increased in recent years–Boston, Denver, Milwaukee, the Lakers, the four most recent NBA champions–had a floor-spacing two-way forward in that spot. Buzelis has as good a chance as any player in this class to grow into that archetype.

Smart player on defense with size, if he were stronger and quicker laterally he’d have a very high ceiling on that end–worry is that his frame doesn’t look like one that would fill out. If it does, he can probably defend 3-4 and offer secondary rim protection, team defense playmaking and solid positional rebounding–seems too stiff/slow to defend wings and isn’t strong enough to be a full-time interior defender right now. Screen navigation is fine, hindered by lack of physicality and brute strength, but does fight through — also unlikely to be defending a ton of screens in his NBA role. Plays hard enough on that end to counteract the strength disadvantage.

Best suited as a 3/4 switchable guy that guards mostly off-ball and makes plays from help. Averaged 2.7 blocks per game as a skinny teenager in the extremely physical G League, fourth-most in the league, times his rotations well and utilizes vertical athleticism. Adjusted to the physicality of the G League as the year went on and became an impactful defender, a testament to his on-court character and adaptability.

Scoring in the mid-to-low post is a really intriguing ancillary skill. Vast array of turnarounds, up-and-under finishes using fakes and quick pivots, can reach around contests and finish with touch, fadeaways go right over the top of defenders given his size. Once he matures physically he could be a real threat as a late-shot clock release valve scorer in the post. Tough shot-making flashes were high level for, again, a teenager in a physical, fast-paced pro league.

Question marks

Athleticism as a ball-handler, defensive versatility/switchability

Ball-handling is subpar at best, which is the main reason he’s rendered as a forward rather than a wing at the next level. Only a straight-line handler, struggles to decelerate in traffic, doesn’t get as much elevation off the bounce, and he’s not nearly shifty enough to blow by and create advantages–best case scenario is a connective passer at the NBA level for a forward opposed to a wing, just doesn’t have a functional handle off the bounce (can rise up and dunk off one foot but lacks genuine explosiveness), but can leverage his shot and make decisions from a standstill/off two feet. Vision is a bit spotty–makes a lot of risky passes–but would probably be less of a detriment with a true point guard. I think he processes the game quickly enough to be a stationary passer from the post area and make reads off an advantage (attacking closeouts, short roll, transition), but doesn’t have the skill or athleticism to create space for his own shot from the perimeter.

Not sure about his defensive versatility overall until he gets stronger. In the meantime, will definitely help generate stocks on the weak side via blocks and deflections. Just really thin and has average foot speed and lateral quickness to boot.

Becoming “more athletic” is somewhat of a tall task at the NBA level, but Buzelis is still young, already 6-foot-10 and has some vertical pop to go with a fearless mentality. Even at his peak, unlikely to switch down as a defender but has the physical tools to match up with bigger wings and forwards. Will make up for what he lacks on-ball with above average shot blocking for a four.

Overall outlook

Buzelis’ upside may not be as high as previously imagined in the stretch-4 archetype rather than as a playmaking wing, but definitely has a higher floor than I thought at beginning of year. Probably bolstered his stock more than any Ignite player. Also has that dog in him–love him challenging Zaccharie Risacher to a 1-on-1 pre-draft.

Not my favorite fit with Charlotte for a few reasons. One, a Buzelis-Mark Williams frontcourt is not very versatile defensively, as neither project as genuine “switchable” players down the line. A drop defense scheme that keeps Buzelis as the low-man rim protector would be a necessity, putting a lot of strain on Charlotte’s point-of-attack defenders–which are currently well below average, especially LaMelo Ball. Maximize Ball’s strengths and minimize his weaknesses–Buezlis doesn’t really help with either.

Secondly, it puts undue pressure on Ball and Brandon Miller to be elite high-volume shot creators. Buzelis and Williams are going to be play-finishers, and we’ve seen enough of Miles Bridges (if he’s even retained) to know he’s not efficient enough to be a top scoring option on a championship-caliber team. Unless the Hornets acquire an All-Star caliber wing scorer, they’d be banking on a huge creation leap from Buzelis or sustained efficiency on high volume from Ball and Miller. To me, it makes more sense to add shot creators at every position rather than heaving the load onto just a couple of scorers.

Though Buzelis is safely a top-10 prospect on my board, fit factors heavily into my evaluation. I think there are better prospect fits in the lottery as the Hornets try to build themselves into a championship contender–or in other words, a premier franchise.