NBA Draft Lottery preview and discussion

What: NBA Draft Lottery

When: 3:00pm Eastern

Where: Chicago, IL

How to watch: ABC, ESPN+

No better way to celebrate Mother’s Day than suddenly and inexplicably getting very anxious about when the deputy commissioner of the NBA pulls the Charlotte Hornets logo out of an oversized envelope. The show starts at 3:00, but if you’re trying to be more precise and willing to risk me being wrong and missing the thing, I’d guess it’s more likely the pick announcements start around 3:15 or 3:20 or so. The first bit of the program is just introductions of the representatives at the lottery and a few random minute long interviews. They’ll draw picks 14 through five before taking a commercial break and unveiling the order of the top four.

The Charlotte Hornets will be represented by Brandon Miller. His job will be to sit at a small podium and hope a good thing happens.

If you don’t know how the lottery works, here’s the quick and dirty: There are 14 ping pong balls in a hopper that are numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn from that hopper for picks one through four. There are 1001 possible combinations with that set up, and those combinations are divvied up among the teams based on their lottery odds.

The Hornets can pick anywhere between 1st and 7th. They won a drawing with the Trail Blazers for better lottery odds, which makes it less likely they drop out of the top five and eliminates the possibility of dropping all the way to the 8th pick. And they get one extra combination of balls in the machine (133 instead of 132). Here are the odds for each pick:

1st: 13.3%
2nd: 12.9%
3rd: 12.4%
4th: 11.7%
5th: 15.3%
6th: 27.1%
7th: 7.4%

The nature of this draft class makes it so that today is one of the more inconsequential lottery drawings in recent memory. There are no clear franchise altering superstars at the top of the draft, and the rankings of the top five to ten picks seem more personal preference than clear delineation in talent. Still, it’s cool to have your pick of your preference.

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